Is the FPL price change predictor accurate?

We snapshot FPL's own price-change predictor seven minutes before midnight every night and check it against the prices that came out. Here is what it got right and what it missed, night by night. Data as of 23 October 2026, 00:53 UK, Gameweek 7. The next deadline, for Gameweek 8, is Friday 23 October at 18:30 UK time. The bubble map has the same numbers live, refreshed every 15 minutes.

143of 143

It called 143 of 143 price changes

14 nights scored · 100% of flagged changes happened

1

price moved without a flag

0

misses

Send this to your mini-league

“FPL's own price predictor called 143 of 143 price changes over 14 nights. Scored night by night:”

Night by night

Every face changed price that night: green rose, red fell. A glowing ring means the predictor had flagged it; a crossed face was flagged and did not move.

  1. Night of 22 October 2026

    4/4

    4 changes: 2 up, 2 down

  2. Night of 21 October 2026

    2/2

    2 changes: 1 up, 1 down

  3. Night of 20 October 2026

    7/7

    8 changes: 1 up, 7 down · 1 without a flag

  4. Night of 19 October 2026

    10/10

    10 changes: 4 up, 6 down

  5. Night of 18 October 2026

    13/13

    BRNOSA

    13 changes: 2 up, 11 down

  6. Night of 17 October 2026

    10/10

    10 changes: 3 up, 7 down

  7. Night of 16 October 2026

    27/27

    +11

    27 changes: 4 up, 23 down

  8. Night of 15 October 2026

    3/3

    3 changes: 0 up, 3 down

  9. Night of 14 October 2026

    5/5

    5 changes: 0 up, 5 down

  10. Night of 13 October 2026

    7/7

    7 changes: 3 up, 4 down

  11. Night of 12 October 2026

    4/4

    4 changes: 1 up, 3 down

  12. Night of 11 October 2026

    19/19

    +3

    19 changes: 6 up, 13 down

  13. Night of 10 October 2026

    21/21

    BU+5

    21 changes: 3 up, 18 down

  14. Night of 9 October 2026

    11/11

    OR

    11 changes: 2 up, 9 down

How this is measured

Every night at 23:53 UK, seven minutes before FPL changes prices, we save a snapshot of the game's own predictor for all 550-odd players. The next snapshot has the prices that came out. A player the predictor had at 100% or more is a flagged change; if his price moved that way at midnight, it happened. A price that moved without being flagged is an unflagged change, and that is the failure that costs you money, because it is the one you could not have seen coming.

Nothing here is our estimate. The prediction is FPL's published number and the outcome is the price in the game, both taken from the official API. We are the scoreboard, not a competing model.

Two caveats worth knowing. The counter resets after each change, so a player who rises cannot rise again the same night. And a snapshot at 23:53 cannot catch a transfer surge in the last seven minutes: a player at 96% at 23:53 who crosses at 23:58 shows here as an unflagged change, which makes this measurement slightly harsher on the predictor than it deserves.

Tonight's list is on the price changes page, and the map colours every player by the same number.

FPLBubbles is an independent tool and is not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League. Data from the public FPL API.